Miami Dolphins have best chance of reaching Super Bowl in AFC, per ESPN analytics

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Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Per ESPN analytics, the Miami Dolphins have the best chance of representing the American Football Conference in the Super Bowl this season.

Miami Dolphins Super Bowl odds

Even though the number cited is not a dominant one, it obviously stands at the top after just one week of the 2023 NFL season.

Last Sunday, the Dolphins outlasted the Los Angeles Chargers, 36-34. The back-and-forth clash was won by the Dolphins with less than two minutes remaining in the contest on a four-yard scoring toss from Tua Tagovailoa to Tyreek Hill.

Of course, it’s far too early to make such determinations about the Dolphins’ Super Bowl viability. The franchise last competed in the annual championship in January 1985, a near 40-year drought.

However, players such as Tagovailoa, Hill and Jaylen Waddle offer plenty of hope for the team’s offense.

In the win over the Chargers, Tagovailoa had a huge day, completing 28 of his 45 passes for 466 yards and three touchdowns. Hill was the main recipient of Tagovailoa’s tosses, grabbing 11 receptions for 215 yards and two scores.

Something that would aid the Dolphins’ Super Bowl push a great deal is a more effective running game. Raheem Mostert led the team in rushing against the Chargers, gaining just 37 yards on 10 carries, with one touchdown.

In addition, the need for the Dolphins to tighten up their defense is paramount to any thoughts of playing in a Super Bowl. Besides the 34 points allowed, Dolphins defenders gave up 200 yards through the air and 233 yards on the ground.

Finally, the haunting specter of injuries especially hangs over the head of the Dolphins. Last season, Tagovailoa was forced to deal with multiple concussions and ended up watching his season abruptly end after he suffered a concussion on Christmas Day.

During the offseason, Tagovailoa made a concerted effort to protect himself from a recurrence of additional concussions by embracing jiu-jitsu training. Thus far, the results have been positive, but a long season remains ahead.

Right now, it’s highly doubtful that Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel is even thinking about the Super Bowl. His concern is more immediate, with the Dolphins set to face the New England Patriots on Sunday night.

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Brad is a freelance writer for and has been around long enough to remember the 1972 perfect season, and even when Don Shula was coaching the Colts. He still follows the Dolphins and other happenings in the NFL, so he can offer a little perspective when it comes to the ups and downs of each season. Some of his opinions may end up differing from the people who read them, but that's par for the course when it comes to life in South Florida.