Is there still a path for the Miami Dolphins to make the playoffs this season?

With more than half of the Miami Dolphins’ schedule for the 2025 season in the books, it would appear as if this campaign is destined to go down as a lost one for them. They sit well below the .500 mark at 4-7 and are stuck in an AFC that’s loaded with capable teams.

Should Dolphins fans still have hope that the team can make the playoffs for a third time under head coach Mike McDaniel this season, or are they already a lock to miss the playoffs for a second straight season? Let’s try to answer that question.

Is there a path for the Dolphins to reach the playoffs?

To put it bluntly, the answer is yes, but the Dolphins are staring at incredibly long odds to make the playoffs. The possibility that Miami clinches a playoff spot by winning its division should be ruled out, as the New England Patriots sit atop the AFC East with the best record in all of football at 10-2.

A wild card spot isn’t as out of reach as a divisional title is, but the Dolphins will still have to make up a whole lot of ground in the standings between now and the end of the campaign. The current trio of AFC wild card teams — the Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills — all boast 7-4 records.

One stat in particular sums up Miami’s low (but nonzero) odds of making the playoffs right now. According to NFL.com, if the Dolphins win their matchup on Sunday against the New Orleans Saints, their odds of reaching the playoffs will climb from one percent to two percent.

What needs to happen for the Dolphins to steal a playoff bid?

First off, it’s pretty clear that the Dolphins need to essentially play perfect football the rest of the way. That means earning victories in each of their last six games of the campaign, which won’t be easy to pull off by any stretch.

While the Dolphins do have some manageable games left on their schedule, they will also face off against the likes of the Patriots, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Pittsburgh Steelers, and all of those teams are looking to fortify their playoff positioning.

Moreover, even if the Dolphins finish the campaign on a high note by winning every one of their final six contests, that won’t guarantee them a playoff spot at all. According to a simulator from The Athletic, Miami’s odds of nabbing a playoff bid (as of now) in a world where they win out are a notch or two better than 25 percent, depending on the luck of the simulator.

Certainly, that’s a lot better than their current odds, but it’s clear that the Dolphins don’t control their own destiny. They’re also going to need some help.

Which games this weekend have the potential to help Miami’s playoff odds?

Along with stacking up wins to end the season, Miami is going to need other teams in the AFC playoff hunt pick up some losses. There are some games scheduled for this weekend that could potentially help the Dolphins’ odds to qualify for the playoffs in a major way.

The simulator from The Athletic shows that wins by the Las Vegas Raiders (against the Chargers), Tennessee Titans (against the Jaguars), Pittsburgh Steelers (against the Bills) and Indianapolis Colts (against the Houston Texans) are among the outcomes Dolphins fans should be pulling for this weekend.

Of course, none of this matters if the Dolphins can’t take care of business themselves, but if they can stay in the win column while some teams ahead of them falter, the 2025 NFL season will still have some life in South Florida.

As of now, there is still a chance.