Are the Miami Dolphins making a mistake if they move on from Tua Tagovailoa?

The 2025 Miami Dolphins season is all but lost, and the future of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa appears to be up in the air.

NFL insider Ian Rapoport suggested that the Dolphins could consider a change at quarterback if the former No. 5 overall pick can’t turn things around this season. And unfortunately, there has been very little evidence to suggest that Tagovailoa is finding his form from the 2023 season when he led the NFL in passing yards and took the Dolphins to the playoffs with an 11-6 record.

“The quarterback question in Miami has become a problem in recent days,” Rapoport wrote. “Tagovailoa has struggled through a brutal start to the season, leading the league with 11 interceptions. Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel has long been a champion of Tagovailoa, knowing their futures are tied together.

“Tagovailoa has seen his most success under McDaniel — including a Pro Bowl selection in 2023. Yet the interceptions have continued in bunches, and the Dolphins are 2-7 this season following Thursday’s blowout loss to the [Baltimore] Ravens.

“If nothing changes, it is reasonable that Miami would consider a QB change.”

Tagovailoa, like many players, comes with his pros and his cons. The Dolphins quarterback has been one of the most accurate passers in the NFL in his career, completing 68.1 percent of his throws, but he has struggled with turnovers in the 2025 season.

Plus, he’s been an injury risk for much of his career, and he’s suffered multiple head injuries that are a concern for his long-term future in the league.

Still, moving on from the lefty won’t be that easy. Miami locked Tagovailoa into a long-term deal last offseason, giving him a four-year extension worth over $200 million. For the Dolphins to release him after the 2025 season, they’d have to take on nearly $100 million in dead cap, per Spotrac. They could also try to trade him but would still be on the hook for some dead money.

Let’s examine whether or not the Dolphins would be making a mistake if they were to move on from the former first-round pick one way or another after his struggles in the first nine games of the 2025 season.

The case for sticking with Tua

The 2025 season has been a nightmare for the Dolphins on several fronts. Miami lost wide receiver Tyreek Hill for the season, and it’s had injuries up and down the roster on both sides of the ball.

Does Tagovailoa deserve another shot with a better supporting cast?

There’s a chance the Dolphins could get him that in the offseason, but they’d have to hit on some free agents and some draft picks.

In the 2023 season, Tagovailoa led the Dolphins to 11 wins and nearly captured a division title, and he still has a 40-31 record as a starter in the NFL.

At his best, Tagovailoa has led the Dolphins to arguably the best passing attack in the NFL. He led the league in passing yards in the 2023 season, and in the 2022 campaign, he was first in yards gained per passing attempt, yards gained per completion and passer rating. Last season, he also led the league in completion percentage.

To give up on a player that has that kind of ceiling may be foolish, especially since Miami isn’t guaranteed to pick an elite quarterback in the 2026 NFL Draft. In fact, the Dolphins have struggled to find an answer at quarterback for quite some time, as they haven’t won a playoff game since the 2000 season.

They’ve gone through a number of quarterbacks since then who haven’t been able to end the playoff victory drought.

So, there’s no guarantee that moving on from Tagovailoa means the team will upgrade, and it’s worth noting that the Dolphins might have been a playoff team in the 2024 season had Tagovailoa not missed time, as they went 6-5 in his 11 starts.

The case for moving on from Tua

There’s a chance Tagovailoa starts all 17 games for the Dolphins in the 2025 season, but he’s only done that one time in his NFL career (the 2023 season) to date. He’s led the Dolphins to the playoffs twice, but he was hurt in the 2022 season and didn’t even play in the team’s playoff game against the Buffalo Bills.

This season has been a disaster, as the University of Alabama product is tied for the league lead with 11 interceptions and is completing five percent fewer of his passes (from 72.9 percent to 67.9 percent) than he did in the 2024 season.

Miami’s offense is no longer one of the best in the NFL, as it has scored less than 10 points in two of the last three weeks.

Sure, there is some stability in keeping Tagovailoa at quarterback since the Dolphins have won over 50 percent of his starts, but he hasn’t been able to see all of those seasons through anyway.

Taking a financial hit to move on from Tagovailoa would hurt the Dolphins for a season or two, but it would allow them to reset and move on from a roster that clearly isn’t good enough to compete with the elite teams in the league.

If the Dolphins had missed the postseason just once, it would make sense to give Tagovailoa a chance to redeem himself. But Miami is set to fall short again in the 2025 season, and it has yet to win a playoff game in the McDaniel era.

At some point, the Dolphins have to wonder if Tagovailoa is good enough to get them into contender status with all of the elite quarterbacks across the league.

What’s the verdict?

The goal is to win a Super Bowl.

If everything is perfect around Tagovailoa, and he’s able to stay healthy (something he’s struggled with in his career), Miami may be in the mix to win the AFC East.

But now, the Dolphins are stuck in a division with two MVP candidates in Josh Allen and Drake Maye, and it appears neither quarterback is going anywhere for the foreseeable future. So, if the Dolphins want to get over the top, they need to be better at quarterback.

Sadly, Tagovailoa’s game is always going to be limited.

He’s 0-1 in the playoffs. He’s struggled in cold weather games, having never won an NFL matchup in which the starting temperature was below 45 degrees. Can he win a big December game in New England or Buffalo? Can he win against Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City? Can he beat Lamar Jackson in Baltimore?

Tagovailoa’s lone playoff game came on a frigid night in Kansas City in January of 2024, and the Dolphins were blown out in that matchup while he completed just 20 of his 39 passes for 199 yards, one pick and one touchdown.

The Dolphins are at a crossroads. They know that their team isn’t good enough, which is likely why general manager Chris Grier is gone.

McDaniel’s future is up in the air, as each loss makes it harder and harder to justify keeping him beyond this season. Why would they settle for Tagovailoa’s injury risk and limited ceiling at quarterback?

The Dolphins had a fun run in the early McDaniel years, but the magic has faded. The financial burden of moving on from Tagovailoa is huge — especially if he’s released — but the next great Miami team likely isn’t going to be built overnight.

Instead, the Dolphins should look to reset as much as they can about the organization, which includes Tagovailoa, in the coming offseason. Tagovailoa is likely going to complete six NFL seasons with a record slightly above .500 and zero playoff wins.

If the franchise is serious about wanting to win a Super Bowl, then it’s time to move on from the Tagovailoa era.