How the Zach Wilson signing could decide the trajectory of the Dolphins beyond 2025

The Miami Dolphins have a problem.

Year in and year out, the health of franchise cornerstone Tua Tagovailoa is a theme that can’t be ignored.

When he’s on the field, the Dolphins win. When he isn’t, they don’t.

Miami has gone through a number of backup quarterbacks during Tagovailoa’s tenure, most recently shuffling through the likes of Skylar Thompson, Tim Boyle and Tyler Huntley in the 2024 campaign.

While Huntley was serviceable at times across five starts this past season, the team evidently wanted to bring in some new blood this offseason, opting to sign former No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson to a reported one-year deal worth $6 million.

Miami could still bring in some more competition at quarterback to challenge Wilson behind Tagovailoa, but the size of Wilson’s contract seems to indicate that he’s in line to be the No. 2 guy in the 2025 season. He’s currently the only quarterback on the roster besides Tagovailoa.

If Wilson is indeed the No. 2 guy, the Dolphins should expect him to start at least three games for them in the 2025 season. And here’s why:

Tagovailoa just completed his fifth NFL season. In his rookie campaign, he wasn’t the designated starter for the entire season, so we’ll throw that out. But his other four seasons still give us enough of a sample size to come to some conclusions. Check it out:

Rookie season excluded, Tagovailoa misses 3.5 games per season on average. It could be more in the 2025 campaign. It could be less. It could be none. But history indicates that 3.5 is a good ballpark to operate with.

As the Dolphins prepare for the 2025 campaign, they must be aware that those few games could be the difference between making and missing the playoffs. Those few games could be what determines whether or not the Dolphins are unrecognizable in 2026. Those few games could mean everything.

And they may all fall on Wilson’s shoulders.

What then?

Wilson does have experience. He has started 33 games during his NFL career, including some while surrounded by roster conditions that weren’t exactly built for success. The roster conditions won’t be the same in Miami.

Wilson also has some upside. He was the No. 2 overall pick in 2021 for a reason, and at 25 years old, he still has time to realize a lot of his potential.

But he also still needs to learn how to win at the NFL level. And that isn’t an easy thing to figure out on the fly.

Here’s the trend the Dolphins need to be afraid of:

• Their record when Tagovailoa starts: 38-24
• Their record when he doesn’t: 9-13

The above stats include all regular-season Dolphins games since Tagovailoa was drafted.

If Wilson ends up as Miami’s No. 2 quarterback going into the season, it will be his responsibility to curb the aforementioned trend. Let’s walk through one feared outcome. What if Wilson starts a game, maybe two, and is clearly not capable of keeping the team afloat? The Dolphins could nix the experiment and turn to a different backup, but will they have a better option?

There’s a lot on the line this coming season. The future of head coach Mike McDaniel could be at stake. General manager Chris Grier might be holding firm in his role for now, but going into this offseason, there was buzz about some potential shuffling. The roster, meanwhile, is also likely in question. If the team can’t prove that last season was a fluke, there will have to be changes.

So, let’s circle back: What happens if Wilson gets three games that could ultimately determine the direction of the Dolphins franchise?

Does he go 3-0? 2-1? 1-2? 0-3?

What if he’s forced to start four?

4-0? 3-1? 2-2? 1-3? 0-4?

It may depend on how this offense is built. If the Dolphins can rely on the run this season behind an offensive line that will need to hold up, Wilson’s life will be easier if he’s called into action.

It may depend on which opponents Wilson has to deal with. Will he have to navigate a stretch of games against playoff teams, or will he have the luxury of facing sub-.500 squads?

Or it may simply depend on whether Wilson is up to the challenge. Right now, that’s a mystery.

Wilson looked good in the 2024 preseason with the Denver Broncos, but he didn’t see the field during the actual season.

The man has been largely doubted ever since his NFL career went south. The term “bust” has been thrown around a lot. He hasn’t started a real game since 2023.

He’s mobile and has a great arm but has earned a reputation for his flaws, which include poor accuracy. He has been written off by many.

With so many unknowns, perhaps the real question is this:

Is he pissed off, and does he have an answer?